BA 2036 · MCO → LGW

took off 8:25 PM ET · expected to land 7:40 AM GMT (scheduled 7:22 PM ET → 7:12 AM GMT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at LGW more than 15 minutes late?

98% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LGW?

LIVE

On time or early
2%
15–30 min late
29%
30 min–1 hour late
69%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGW

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGW (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

BA 2036 · MCO → LGW

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGW?