Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 1552
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 1552 · IAH → SDF
departs 12:34 PM CT · arrives 3:59 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 5h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+13 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SDF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +13 pts in 24h
+13 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 28% · changed +16 pts in 24h
+16 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SDF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SDF?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
SDF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.