Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4274
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4274 · IAD → DAY
departs 5:32 PM ET · arrives 7:14 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 18%
Thu 10/29 23%
Fri 10/30 30%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DAY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at DAY more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DAY?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from IAD are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
IAD is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DAY
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DAY (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.