Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4334
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4334 · IAH → JAN
departs 6:41 PM CT · arrives 8:19 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 16%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 22%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at JAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to JAN?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at JAN
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
JAN (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.