Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4376
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4376 · RIC → IAD
departs 8:05 PM ET · arrives 9:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 16h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 26%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±2 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.8d
2d
1d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into IAD at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.