Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4818
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4818 · IAD → CAE
departs 8:25 AM ET · arrives 10:04 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 6h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 17%
Sat 10/31 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at CAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at CAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to CAE?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↑
C5's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at CAE
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
CAE (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.