Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4851
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4851 · ECP → IAH
departs 11:44 AM CT · arrives 1:54 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29 10%
Fri 10/30 24%
Sat 10/31 16%
Sun 11/1 12%
Mon 11/2 12%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave ECP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
C5's recent on-time record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ECP
Weather at each end
ECP (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 11,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.