C5 4867 · SHV → IAH

took off 4:01 PM CT · landed 4:43 PM CT (scheduled 4:03 PM CT → 5:17 PM CT)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±0 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to IAH?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 0.8 in of rain forecast at IAH that day

↑ Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SHV

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SHV (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

IAH (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4867 · SHV → IAH

Odds over time

How late did it get to IAH?