Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4904
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4904 · IAH → LRD
departs 12:10 PM CT · arrives 1:37 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29 12%
Fri 10/30 20%
Sat 10/31 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at LRD more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LRD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at LRD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LRD?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
12pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LRD (destination)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 5,000 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.