C5 4957 · IAH → CRP

departs 4:14 PM CT · arrives 5:26 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at CRP more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CRP?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from IAH are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAH is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAH (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

CRP (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.11 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

C5 4957 · IAH → CRP

Odds over time

How late will it get to CRP?