Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4962
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4962 · IAD → GSP
departs 12:40 PM ET · arrives 2:11 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 12h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 13%
Thu 10/29 25%
Fri 10/30 17%
Sun 11/1 17%
Mon 11/2 17%
Odds over time
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
+7 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at GSP more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed +7 pts in 24h
+7 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at GSP more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to GSP?
On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAD is busy at that time
↑
12pm departures from IAD are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at GSP
Weather at each end
IAD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
GSP (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.