Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4997
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 4997 · BTR → IAH
departs 4:14 PM CT · arrives 5:45 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 10%
Thu 10/29 14%
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 17%
Sun 11/1 15%
Mon 11/2 15%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 20% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave BTR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.8 in of rain forecast at IAH that day
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BTR
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BTR (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.