Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 5014
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
C5 5014 · IAH → LBB
departs 9:29 AM CT · arrives 11:15 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at LBB more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.4d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LBB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +5 pts in 24h
+5 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at LBB more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LBB?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
IAH is busy at that time
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LBB that day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LBB (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.