CI 5138 · TPE → LAX

departs 11:31 PM CST · arrives 8:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 8h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at TPE

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

TPE (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAX (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CI 5138 · TPE → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?