CM 434 · PTY → MCO

departs 5:48 PM EST · arrives 10:15 PM ET

Your aircraft is HP1830 (B738).

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±1 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ MCO usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

PTY (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts31 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 434 · PTY → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?