CM 445 · MCO → PTY

took off 6:48 PM ET · expected to land 8:36 PM EST (scheduled 6:10 PM ET → 8:30 PM EST)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

43% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to PTY?

LIVE

On time or early
57%
15–30 min late
38%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Gusts to 31 kt forecast at MCO that day

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts31 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 445 · MCO → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?