CM 815 · JFK → PTY

took off 3:23 AM ET · expected to land 6:52 AM EST (scheduled 3:17 AM ET → 7:24 AM EST)

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at PTY more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −14 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to PTY?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PTY that day

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PTY (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CM 815 · JFK → PTY

Odds over time

How late will it get to PTY?