Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
CATHAY PACIFIC · FLIGHT CX 853
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
CX 853 · SEA → HKG
departs 12:05 PM PT · arrives 4:50 PM HKT
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 13h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 12%
Thu 10/29 14%
Sat 10/31 14%
Odds over time
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
14%
chance · ±1 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
14%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
6.6d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HKG more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at HKG more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HKG?
On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
12pm departures from SEA are often late
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
HKG usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.08 in
HKG (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.