Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1304
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
DL 1304 · SLC → SNA
departs 9:05 PM MT · arrives 10:00 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 20h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 11%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 16%
Sat 10/31 12%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 20%
Odds over time
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±4 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
Now
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave SLC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at SNA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SNA?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Gusts to 40 kt forecast at SLC that day
↑
SNA is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SNA
Weather at each end
SLC (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 9,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
SNA (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.