DL 2408 · FAI → SEA

took off 3:18 AM AKT · expected to land 7:16 AM PT (scheduled 2:15 AM AKT → 7:03 AM PT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

83% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SEA?

LIVE

On time or early
17%
15–30 min late
54%
30 min–1 hour late
29%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft forecast at FAI that day

↑ 2am departures from FAI are often late

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

FAI (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility9 mi Precip0.03 in

SEA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 2408 · FAI → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?