Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 46 IN THE AIR (OFF 12:05 AM ET, ETA 11:20 AM CET) · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

DL 46 · JFK → AMS

took off 12:05 AM ET · expected to land 11:20 AM CET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at AMS more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ JFK is busy at that time

↑ 12am departures from JFK are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AMS (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 46 · JFK → AMS

Odds over time