Schedule: FAA flight plans.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 492 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 12:01 PM PT (15 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 27 Tomorrow

DL 492 · SAN → DTW

departs 11:37 AM PT · arrives 7:10 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at DTW more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DTW?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ 11am departures from SAN are often late

↑ Arrivals into DTW at that hour are often late

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DTW

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DTW (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 492 · SAN → DTW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DTW?