Schedule: FAA flight plans.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 869 DELAYED: NOW PLANNED TO TAKE OFF 4:53 PM CT (17 MIN LATER THAN FIRST FILED)

Tuesday, October 27 Today

DL 869 · DFW → LGA

departs 4:10 PM CT · arrives 8:51 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at LGA more than 15 minutes late?

71% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LGA?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into LGA at that hour are often late

↑ 4pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LGA

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LGA (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 869 · DFW → LGA

Odds over time

How late will it get to LGA?