Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

DELTA · FLIGHT DL 9971 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27

DL 9971 · ATL → MSY

departs 4:26 PM ET · arrives 5:02 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure

Arrive at MSY more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSY?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 4pm departures from ATL are often late

↑ Arrivals into MSY at that hour are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSY (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

DL 9971 · ATL → MSY

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSY?