Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AER LINGUS · FLIGHT EI 85 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

EI 85 · DUB → RDU

departs 3:29 PM GMT · arrives 7:57 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DUB

Weather at each end

DUB (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

EI 85 · DUB → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?