Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1086
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 1086 · PHX → MCO
departs 10:11 PM MT · arrives 5:29 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 36%
Fri 10/30 39%
Sun 11/1 32%
Mon 11/2 32%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
−6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −6 pts in 24h
−6 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed −4 pts in 24h
−4 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.