Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1481
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 1481 · MCO → DFW
departs 6:35 PM ET · arrives 8:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 37%
Fri 10/30 37%
Sat 10/31 37%
Sun 11/1 41%
Mon 11/2 39%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
23%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Gusts to 31 kt forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.