Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 1601
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 1601 · PHL → LAS
departs 8:39 PM ET · arrives 11:03 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 39%
Fri 10/30 39%
Sat 10/31 33%
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 35%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
8pm departures from PHL are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
PHL (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.