F9 1659 · EWR → MCO

took off 6:05 AM ET · expected to land 8:15 AM ET (scheduled 5:58 AM ET → 8:46 AM ET)

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

<1% chance · ±0 pts +81 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MCO?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ EWR is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR

Weather at each end

EWR (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 1659 · EWR → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?