Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2445
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 2445 · ORD → LAX
departs 8:02 PM CT · arrives 10:25 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 33%
Fri 10/30 39%
Sat 10/31 42%
Sun 11/1 46%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±0 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
21%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.9d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Now
Lands
Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
21%
Yes 21%
No 79%
Arrive at LAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to LAX?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 34% of the time recently
↑
Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 6 mi Precip none
LAX (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.