Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 2748
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
F9 2748 · DEN → TPA
departs 11:22 AM MT · arrives 4:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 17%
Thu 10/29 22%
Fri 10/30 23%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 22%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.6d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
11am departures from DEN are often late
↑
Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.13 mi forecast at DEN that day
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.13 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.