Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3051
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 3051 · BNA → DFW
departs 6:26 PM CT · arrives 8:34 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 37%
Fri 10/30 50%
Sat 10/31 41%
Sun 11/1 42%
Mon 11/2 42%
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
30%
chance · ±0 pts
+8 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
30%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Now
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 30% · changed +8 pts in 24h
+8 pts
30%
Yes 30%
No 70%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 8 mi Precip none
DFW (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.