Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3228
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 3228 · DEN → IAH
departs 6:20 PM MT · arrives 9:53 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 39%
Fri 10/30 39%
Sat 10/31 26%
Sun 11/1 27%
Mon 11/2 34%
Wed 11/4 29%
Odds over time
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
28%
chance · ±0 pts
+6 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
28%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +6 pts in 24h
+6 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at IAH more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAH?
On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into IAH at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
DEN usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.13 mi Precip none
IAH (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 2,700 ft Visibility 3 mi Precip 0.32 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.