Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 3406
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 3406 · SEA → DEN
departs 4:33 PM PT · arrives 8:23 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 4h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 30%
Fri 10/30 27%
Sat 10/31 18%
Sun 11/1 26%
Mon 11/2 30%
Wed 11/4 30%
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+4 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
26%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 26% · changed +4 pts in 24h
+4 pts
26%
Yes 26%
No 74%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
4pm departures from SEA are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
SEA usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 24 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.04 in
DEN (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.13 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.