F9 3645 · AUS → LAS

departs 1:14 PM CT · arrives 2:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±3 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAS?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LAS (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 3645 · AUS → LAS

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAS?