Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4192
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27
F9 4192 · DFW → MCO
departs 9:52 PM CT · arrives 1:42 AM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/27
Today 37%
Fri 10/30 37%
Sat 10/31 33%
Sun 11/1 38%
Mon 11/2 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
23%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
23%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
7.0d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 23% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
23%
Yes 23%
No 77%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 27% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
9pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 8,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 31 kt Ceiling 3,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.