Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4454
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
F9 4454 · IND → MCO
departs 11:17 AM ET · arrives 1:45 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 10h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Sat 10/31 19%
Sun 11/1 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave IND more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
MCO is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IND
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IND (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 34 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.07 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.