Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4463 LANDED 9:18 PM MT, ~5 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27

F9 4463 · DFW → DEN

took off 8:47 PM CT · landed 9:18 PM MT (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 1h after departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Other factors

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4463 · DFW → DEN

Odds over time