Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4523
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
F9 4523 · MCO → AUS
departs 8:03 AM ET · arrives 10:01 AM CT
Forecast issued Tue 8:00 AM ET · 0h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Wed 10/28 15%
Thu 10/29 18%
Fri 10/30 21%
Sat 10/31 22%
Sun 11/1 18%
Mon 11/2 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
8%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.3d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
F9's recent on-time record
↑
MCO is prone to delays
↑
AUS is prone to delays
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
↓
Gusts to 33 kt forecast at MCO that day
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AUS (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling 6,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.