F9 4684 · LAS → AUS

departs 7:23 AM PT · arrives 12:28 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 9h before departure

Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to AUS?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ LAS is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 22% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

LAS (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

AUS (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4684 · LAS → AUS

Odds over time

How late will it get to AUS?