Tracked live by the FAA, but its flight plan was first seen after takeoff, so we don't know the scheduled time and can't say whether it's late.

FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 4712 LANDED 2:28 AM ET, ~2 MIN LATE · SCHEDULED TIME UNKNOWN

Tuesday, October 27 Today

F9 4712 · ATL → BWI

took off 1:09 AM ET · landed 2:28 AM ET (scheduled time unknown)

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at BWI more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±0 pts −4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

What’s moving the odds

↑ F9's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 50% of the time recently

↑ Other factors

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ATL (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BWI (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

F9 4712 · ATL → BWI

Odds over time