Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 9181
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
F9 9181 · MCO → BQN
departs 11:06 AM ET · arrives 2:16 PM AT
Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 7h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at BQN more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±0 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
Now
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BQN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at BQN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to BQN?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 34 kt forecast at MCO that day
↑
11am departures from MCO are often late
↑
Thunderstorms forecast at BQN that day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 33 kt Ceiling 4,500 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
BQN (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.14 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.