Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
FRONTIER · FLIGHT F9 9466
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
F9 9466 · BQN → TPA
departs 4:03 PM AT · arrives 6:15 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 7h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±0 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
6.7d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 24% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave BQN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at TPA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPA?
On time or early
75%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Arrivals into TPA at that hour are often late
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TPA
Weather at each end
BQN (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling 2,000 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip none
TPA (destination)
Gusts 22 kt Ceiling 10,000 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.