FI 644 · IAD → KEF

took off 8:32 PM ET · expected to land 5:52 AM GMT (scheduled 8:47 PM ET → 6:31 AM GMT)

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at KEF more than 15 minutes late?

0% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late will it get to KEF?

LIVE

On time or early
100%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
0%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%; while it’s in the air they come from the FAA’s arrival estimate.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ IAD is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts5 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility9 mi Precipnone

KEF (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

FI 644 · IAD → KEF

Odds over time

How late will it get to KEF?