Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ICELANDAIR · FLIGHT FI 821 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday

FI 821 · KEF → RDU

departs 4:44 PM GMT · arrives 7:46 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±1 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into RDU at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RDU

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KEF

Weather at each end

KEF (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

FI 821 · KEF → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?