G4 2273 · AZA → MSO

departs 8:00 AM MT · arrives 11:30 AM MT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 8h after departure

Arrive at MSO more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to MSO?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at AZA

Weather at each end

AZA (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MSO (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling2,100 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.04 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 2273 · AZA → MSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MSO?