Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 491
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
G4 491 · SFB → AVL
departs 1:11 PM ET · arrives 2:49 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 10h after departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AVL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave SFB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at AVL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AVL?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 29% of the time recently
↑
1pm departures from SFB are often late
↑
SFB is prone to delays
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AVL
Weather at each end
SFB (origin)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 4,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AVL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.