Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 4931
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Today
G4 4931 · TUL → IAD
departs 10:06 AM CT · arrives 1:47 PM ET
Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 9h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±0 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
Now
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at IAD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave TUL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at IAD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to IAD?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Other factors
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TUL
Weather at each end
TUL (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
IAD (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.