Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 646
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
G4 646 · IWA → BZN
departs 2:45 AM MSK · arrives 8:05 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 23h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Fri 10/30 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
10%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.8d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BZN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave IWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at BZN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to BZN?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft forecast at BZN that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↓
BZN usually runs smoothly
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
IWA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
BZN (destination)
Gusts 30 kt Ceiling 5,500 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.03 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.