Schedule: the flights that flew on Tuesday, Oct 20, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 714
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Tuesday, October 27 Yesterday
G4 714 · IWA → FSD
departs 6:09 PM MSK · arrives 12:49 PM CT
Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 8h after departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today
Thu 10/29 16%
Odds over time
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±0 pts
+3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.5d
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FSD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 25% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave IWA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at FSD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to FSD?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 300 ft forecast at FSD that day
↑
G4's recent on-time record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Tuesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
FSD usually runs smoothly
Weather at each end
IWA (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
FSD (destination)
Gusts 18 kt Ceiling 300 ft Visibility 4 mi Precip 0.05 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.